The current incentive levels are not quite as high as they were at the end of last year. In the sense they have been higher, they probably could go up going forward. The price pressure are obviously going to remain very intense. But that said, they're not going to rise dramatically. They're already very good.

The general consensus (on 2004 sales) is 17 million. If manufacturers come on strong with incentives, it'll easily be 17 million. If they pull back -- and there's been a lot of discussion of them pulling back -- it could be 16.5.

Consumers are going to increasingly weigh the importance of fuel efficiency. But if they need, in their minds, an SUV, they are going to find a way to stay in that vehicle. They'll still look for big engines, towing capacity, cargo space.

At least some of the problem is the artificially high sales last year, which is making this year's sales look a lot lower than they should.

They might want to (pay more) in the short term to avoid a strike. But if they're spending money now to gloss over the hard decisions that Delphi needs to make, they're only going to compound their problems when their turn comes up.

Dwindling 2005 inventory levels and rising gas prices have caused a significant drop in full-size SUV and pickup sales.

I think incentives have been a concern for some time now as they impact margins. With GM pushing hard on incentives to boost their volume, it's pulling everyone kicking and screaming into the game whether they like it or not.

March, in my view, will be interesting. It'll be the first real test of the new chairman.

I think the incentives are going to continue to be necessary. If you don't play the incentive game, you'll lose market share. At least in the first half of the year, even in the best case scenario you're just coming out of the recession, you'll need the support of incentives to maintain sales.

GM's market share ... should also show some improvement by month end, but it is unclear whether new models and aggressive pricing will be enough to pull their market share up to last year's average.